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AvalonBay CommunitiesNYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$187.03+1.45%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is low, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. If AVB cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Residential
- Market cap
- $26.16B
- Employees
- 3,041
- IPO date
- 1996-08-13
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-29
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $187.03. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$143.90consensus
Range $88.99 – $183.35
vs price: +30% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$149.29consensus
Range $103.69 – $190.66
vs price: +25% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfull
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $187 AVB trades at 39× p/e — 2.2× the 18× p/e peer median, and above its own 30× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $144 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $187–$209. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
39.1x
peer 17.9x · own history 30.1x
Premium
2.2x peer
1.3x its own history
Growth the price needs
30%
our forecast 9%
Our fair value
$143.90
range $98.20 – $184.56
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 30% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
59th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.43x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
32nd pctl · Real Estate
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised -6.7% / 30d, n=2for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.16 → $1.09 (-6.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 29% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.9% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in maturing (~1.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Guidance credibility
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$75.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$229.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,087.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for Q2 2026 Core FFO guidance to miss the low end of the range
Why it matters: A miss shows ongoing problems with revenue or costs. This can hurt investor trust.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Core FFO per share guidance for Q2 2026 below $2.72.
Disproves:Core FFO per share guidance meets or exceeds $2.72.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AVB yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impact of upcoming economic reports on Real Estate
- Watch for revenue growth across major REITs to re-accelerate
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for AVB and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like EQR, ESS, and INVH keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting AVB and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If AVB raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-21), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If AVB cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-21), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like EQR, ESS, and INVH start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping AVB and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-085d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. As previously disclosed, on May 20, 2026, AvalonBay Communities, Inc., a Maryland corporation (“AvalonBay"), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with Equity Residential, a Maryland real estate investment trust (“Equity Residential”), ERP Operating Partnership, an Illinois limited partnership, and Canopy Merger Sub LLC, a Maryland limited liability company and a direct wholly owned subsidiary of Equity Residential. The Merger Agreement provides f…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-6.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.