Reading ATRO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ATRO free→Reading ATRO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ATRO free→NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality is neutral, and compared with sector peers, ATRO trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 51% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include guidance changes from ATRO and trends among sector bellwethers like GE, RTX, and BA. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $96.00. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $96 ATRO trades at 59× p/e — 1.6× the 38× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $64 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 51% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.43x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.67. 4 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$221.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$463.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,339.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ATRO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
No material events in the last 90 days.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ATRO Astronics Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.