Reading ASH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ASH free→Reading ASH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ASH free→NYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. The three-year read suggests that peer multiples imply a price about 49% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis). This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $64.98. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $65 ASH trades at 20× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $66 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $58–$75. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 2% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.47x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.10 → $1.10 (+0.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 7 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 15.2% above current price.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$154.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$304.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,417.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue results will show if Ashland is on track to meet its $1,835-$1,870M target for fiscal 2026.
Confirms:Q2 revenue reported above $460M, which supports the full-year revenue target.
Disproves:Q2 revenue was below $430M. This raises worries about hitting the full-year target.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ASH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 28, 2026 (such date, the “Closing Date”), Ashland Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Ashland”), entered into a Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) among Ashland, as a borrower, Ashland Industries Europe GmbH, a Gesellschaft mit beschränkter Haftung organized under the laws of Switzerland (the “Swiss Borrower”), as a borrower, each lender from time to time party thereto, The Bank of Nova Scotia, Houston Branch, as…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$58.00 – $75.00 (median $62.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-10
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ASH Ashland Global | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CBT Cabot Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CC Chemours | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 9 of 100 | full | high |
OLN Olin Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
HUN Huntsman Corp | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | fair | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Ashland aims to achieve revenue between $1,835 million and $1,870 million for fiscal 2026.
Ashland targets Adjusted EBITDA between $385 million and $400 million for fiscal 2026.
Ashland aims to maintain a 50% free cash flow conversion rate of Adjusted EBITDA.
Why it matters: A positive change in sector revenue growth could signal a recovery for Ashland and its peers.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth is above 0%. This shows a possible recovery phase.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth is below -2%. This suggests a continued decline.
Why it matters: Changes in the credit agreement may impact Ashland's ability to manage money. This matters for future investments.
Confirms:A press release shows better terms in the credit agreement.
Disproves:A press release shows stricter terms or increased borrowing costs in the credit agreement.
Why it matters: Sector growth trends can impact Ashland's performance. A recovery could signal better times ahead.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth picks up above 1% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 1% year over year.
Why it matters: Updates on free cash flow will show if Ashland can keep 50% conversion of EBITDA.
Confirms:FCF conversion rate is above 50%. This shows strong cash generation.
Disproves:FCF conversion rate is below 50%. This raises concerns about cash flow management.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under “
Director — Mr. Bertrand Loy: The company appointed a new independent director.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, Ashland Inc. (“Ashland”) announced preliminary second quarter results, which are discussed in more detail in the news release (the “News Release”) attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K (“Form 8-K”) as Exhibit 99.1, which is incorporated herein by reference into this