Reading APAM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track APAM free→Reading APAM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track APAM free→NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while earnings quality is fragile. If APAM cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $35.88. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $36 APAM trades at 9× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $52 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $37–$48. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 30% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.68x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.94 → $0.89 (-4.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 9.0% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$103.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$262.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,319.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop below 12% could signal a slowdown in the financial sector's growth phase.
Confirms:Financial sector reports revenue growth below 12% year over year.
Disproves:Financial sector maintains revenue growth above 12% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for APAM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 28, 2026 , Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the availability of certain consolidated financial and operating results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. Copies of the press release and the full earnings release are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including the exhibit…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$37.00 – $48.00 (median $41.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-08
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Asset Management & Custody Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
APAM Artisan Partners Asset Management, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
BLK BlackRock | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BX Blackstone Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BNY BNY Mellon | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | low |
BK BNY Mellon | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Artisan Partners aims to distribute 80% of its cash generated from operations as a quarterly dividend.
Artisan Partners is focusing on expanding its platform in credit and alternative investment strategies.
Artisan Partners plans to invest in enhancing its distribution capabilities and expanding its presence in the EMEA region.
Why it matters: A drop in assets under management may show problems with keeping clients.
Confirms:Net client cash flows decline worse than $3 billion in the next quarter.
Disproves:Net client cash flows stabilize or improve.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company wants to give cash to its shareholders.
Confirms:The company pays a quarterly dividend of $0.77 per share as planned on May 29, 2026.
Disproves:The company delays or cuts the dividend payment.
Why it matters: Stabilizing performance could help regain client trust and reduce outflows.
Confirms:Equity strategies show good performance in the next quarter.
Disproves:Equity strategies are not doing well. This causes more money to leave.
Why it matters: More money coming in shows strong demand for the company's growth plans.
Confirms:Credit strategies see over $1 billion in inflows next quarter.
Disproves:Credit strategies have net outflows or do not grow.
Why it matters: More people are filing for unemployment. This might show that the economy is weak. It could affect how well asset management does.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims rise above 300,000 on either date.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims stay below 250,000 on either date.