Reading APA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track APA free→Reading APA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track APA free→NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, and the company is capital-friendly in its approach. Peer multiples imply a price about 29% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on whether APA cuts guidance on the next call, as that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $37.02. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $37 APA trades at 9× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $52 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $36–$57. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 29% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated strong grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.74x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated robust grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 35% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.94 → $2.13 (+9.5% / 30d). 15 raised, 2 cut, 21 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 30% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 19.1% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$238.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$435.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,001.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results show how well the company is doing financially.
Confirms one read:Earnings are better than expected, showing strong performance.
Confirms the other:Earnings are below what was expected. This shows problems in operations or the market.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for APA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, APA Corporation issued a press release announcing financial and operating results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$36.00 – $57.00 (median $41.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
APA APA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
COP ConocoPhillips | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
EOG EOG Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | moderate |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FANG Diamondback Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Energy names rated volatile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=252).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
APA aims to achieve $450 million in controllable spend savings by the end of 2026.
APA is focused on increasing U.S. oil production, with a target range of 125,000 to 127,000 barrels per day for 2025.
APA is investing in the GranMorgu project in Suriname, with a capital guidance of $275 million for 2025.
APA aims to achieve $450 million in run-rate controllable spend savings by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Reducing debt helps the balance sheet and boosts financial health.
Confirms:Net debt reported below $4 billion in the next earnings release.
Disproves:Net debt remains above $4 billion in the next earnings release.
Why it matters: Updates on this project will show progress in APA's growth and future production.
Confirms one read:They announced important steps toward getting first oil from the GranMorgu project.
Confirms the other:Delays or setbacks in the GranMorgu project timeline or budget.
Why it matters: Higher production guidance shows strong operations and growth for APA.
Confirms:U.S. oil production guidance raised above 123,000 barrels per day for Q4 2026.
Disproves:Production guidance remains at or below 123,000 barrels per day.
Why it matters: Progress on this project is crucial for APA's future production and revenue growth.
Confirms:Look for news on big steps or progress in the GranMorgu project.
Disproves:Watch for delays or problems in the GranMorgu project.
Why it matters: Reaching this goal shows good cost management. It helps keep finances stable.
Confirms:Management says they will save $450 million in controllable spending by the end of 2026.
Disproves:Management says savings will be less than $450 million by year-end 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 14, 2026, APA Corporation issued a press release announcing supplemental information regarding certain financial and operating results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Shareholders approved an amendment to the compensation plan.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026, APA Corporation issued a press release announcing financial and operating results for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 20, 2026, APA Corporation issued a press release announcing supplemental information regarding certain financial and operating results for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.