Reading ANDE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ANDE free→Reading ANDE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ANDE free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, which could impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening, as recent financials or earnings quality are showing signs of decline. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts and trends among sector bellwethers, which could significantly influence ANDE's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $71.85. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $72 ANDE trades at 17× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $71 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 2% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about -6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.04x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated fragile grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.41 → $1.46 (+3.5% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 27.9% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$112.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$277.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,409.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum fell by 16.2 points (from 50.5 to 34.3).
As of June 12, 2026, company momentum fell. This indicates a decrease in recent performance. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, suggesting challenges in the broader environment. The valuation is fair but weakening, reflecting concerns about recent financials and earnings quality.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The Q2 results will show if the earnings miss trend continues. Investors want to see recovery.
Confirms:Earnings per share (EPS) for Q2 comes in worse than analysts' expectations.
Disproves:EPS for Q2 meets or exceeds analysts' expectations.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ANDE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition The Andersons, Inc. issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2026 earnings. This press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Food Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ANDE The Andersons, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SYY Sysco | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
USFD US Foods | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFGC Performance Food Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 19 of 100 | full | moderate |
CHEF Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 29 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving the $7.00 EPS run-rate target by the end of 2028.
Begin operating a bio-based diesel feedstock storage and blending facility by 2026-Q2.
Aim to achieve the EPS target range of $2.79 to $3.23 for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the Consumer Staples sector improves, it may help The Andersons' outlook.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth rises above 5% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows growth and stability in earnings. It shows management's confidence.
Confirms:Q2 EPS reported within the range of $2.79 to $3.23.
Disproves:Q2 EPS is below $2.79. This shows weaker performance.
Why it matters: More people filing for unemployment can show the economy is weak. This can hurt how much people spend.
Confirms:Unemployment claims are much higher than in previous weeks.
Disproves:Unemployment claims go down or stay the same.