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AmazonNASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryInternet RetailSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$238.55-1.23%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 37% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If AMZN cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Internet Retail
- Market cap
- $2.60T
- Employees
- 1,576,000
- IPO date
- 1997-05-15
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $238.55. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$174.04consensus
Range $157.00 – $310.95
vs price: +37% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$358.39consensus
Range $223.76 – $508.95
vs price: -33% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $239 the market pays 29× p/e — above the 18× p/e peer median but in line with its own 49× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $174 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $275–$333. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
28.5x
peer 18.3x · own history 49.4x
Premium
1.6x peer
0.6x its own history
Growth the price needs
37%
our forecast 25%
Our fair value
$173.87
range $157.00 – $310.87
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 37% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 25%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
89th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.64x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
50th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral45 analysts, 94% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.82 → $1.82 (-0.1% / 30d). 30 raised, 8 cut, 45 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 94% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 24.1% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$128.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$283.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,174.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for AWS revenue growth to exceed 25% in Q2
Why it matters: Strong growth in AWS means more people want cloud services. This supports Amazon's work in AI and infrastructure.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:AWS revenue growth in Q2 exceeds 25% year-over-year.
Disproves:AWS revenue growth in Q2 falls below 20% year-over-year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-1217h agoAmazon Web Services, Inc.
Advances: Expand AWS and AI capabilities
Enhances AWS capabilities, aligning with growth objectives.
Strongly reinforcesConfirmed
This sector is also watching
- Watch for consumer revenue growth dropping below median
- Watch for changes in unemployment claims on June 4
- Watch for retail sales data on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like BABA, PDD, and MELI keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting AMZN and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If AMZN raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If AMZN cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like BABA, PDD, and MELI start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping AMZN and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits AMZN and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-103d agoItem 1.01
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT. On June 8, 2026, Amazon.com, Inc. (the “Company”), Citibank N.A., as administrative agent, and the lenders party thereto entered into a term loan agreement (the “DDTL Credit Agreement”). The DDTL Credit Agreement provides the Company with a $17.5 billion senior unsecured delayed draw term loan credit facility (the “DDTL Facility”). Commitments to provide the DDTL Facility will expire on September 30, 2026 unless fully borrowed prior to such date. Th…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+4.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.