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AMWD
American Woodmark Corp.NASDAQIndustrialsFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$48.090.00%
Close 2026-05-28 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, AMWD is below typical. The read is expensive, growth-justified, as the company is not currently profitable, so the valuation leans on sales- and cash-based methods. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances
- Market cap
- $700.65M
- Employees
- 7,800
- IPO date
- 1995-03-17
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $48.09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primary—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-year—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
—
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $48 AMWD trades at 22× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $56 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
21.7x
peer 22.7x · own history 11.3x
Premium
1.0x peer
1.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
-14%
our forecast -14%
Our fair value
$56.17
range $49.30 – $83.14
WhyExtended vs its own history
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
no read12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 14% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
Not enough peers to compare yet.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
25th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 4.33x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
91st pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -26.0% / 30d, n=2for period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.49 → $0.36 (-26.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
1 positive, 4 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$243.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$452.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,083.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 14d
Watch for completion of merger with MasterBrand
Why it matters: Finalizing the merger is key for growth and could reshape the company’s future.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:A press release says the merger is complete and working.
Disproves:There are new delays or problems in the merger process.
Management prioritiesSource dated 2026-05-28
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AMWD yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like HNI, TILE, and MBC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting AMWD and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If AMWD raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-28), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If AMWD cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-28), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like HNI, TILE, and MBC start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping AMWD and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits AMWD and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2816d agoItem 3.01
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, American Woodmark notified the Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (“Nasdaq”) of the Closing and requested that Nasdaq suspend trading of American Woodmark common stock and withdraw American Woodmark common stock from listing on Nasdaq. Upon American Woodmark’s request, Nasdaq will file a notification of removal from listing on Form 25 with the SEC with respect to the del…
Legal / regulatorynegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.