Reading AMTM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMTM free→Reading AMTM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMTM free→NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with AMTM trading above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 42% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $22.86. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $23 AMTM trades at 13× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $39 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 42% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.14x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.61. 1 raised, 3 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 42% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$171.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$361.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,138.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation fell by 11.6 points (from 83.5 to 71.9).
As of June 12, 2026, valuation fell. This change indicates that the stock's valuation is now perceived as more expensive compared to previous assessments. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, which could impact overall performance. The risk level is moderate, suggesting a balanced outlook in terms of potential volatility.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority for Amentum. Results will show if they are on track.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth is below 3% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AMTM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 11, 2026, Amentum Holdings, Inc. (“Amentum”) released its financial results for the second quarter ended April 3, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the financial results as well as the schedule for a conference call and webcast on May 12, 2026 is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified Support Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AMTM Amentum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CTAS Cintas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CPRT Copart | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | elevated |
RBA RB Global | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | full | moderate |
ULS UL Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on sustaining the company's revenue growth over the fiscal year.
Aim to improve operating income through strategic initiatives.
Focus on improving cash flow from operations to support financial stability.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is crucial for Amentum's financial health. A negative cash flow could signal issues.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations remains positive in Q3.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations turns negative in Q3.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims might change Amentum's business. A big rise could hurt their results.
Confirms:Unemployment claims go up a lot before Q3 results.
Disproves:Unemployment claims stay the same or go down before Q3 results.
Why it matters: Sustaining revenue growth is key for Amentum's long-term success. A drop below 5% could signal trouble.
Confirms:Q3 revenue growth stays above 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q3 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Better operating income means better cost control. If it drops below $160M, it could worry investors.
Confirms:Operating income exceeds $160M in Q3.
Disproves:Operating income falls below $160M in Q3.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow supports Amentum's financial health and growth plans.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations increases by more than 10% compared to the previous quarter.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations decreases or stays flat compared to the previous quarter.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amended Credit Agreement On April 24, 2026, Amentum Holdings, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Amentum”), entered into the First Amendment (the “First Amendment”), dated as of such date, among Amentum, Amentum Services, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Amentum Services”), Amentum Technology, Inc., a Tennessee corporation (“Amentum Technology”), the other loan parties party thereto, the lenders party thereto, the issuing banks party thereto and JPMorgan…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information in