Reading AMT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMT free→Reading AMT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMT free→NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly. The sector backdrop is a headwind, while AMT trades above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 3% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $187.18. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $187 the market pays 30× p/e — above the 18× p/e peer median but in line with its own 44× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $196 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $195–$240. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 4% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.85x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to the US dollar and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to Fed net liquidity, the broad stock market.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.60 → $1.53 (-4.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 6 cut, 8 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 76% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 16.8% above current price.
1 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$110.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$280.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,667.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
Valuation changed. The valuation label moved from full to fair. Risk fell. The sector backdrop remained a headwind. Management was volatile.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings results will show if growth in revenue and AFFO continues. This is key for investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 2026 total property revenue growth exceeds 3.4% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 2026 total property revenue growth falls below 3.4% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AMT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 27, 2026, American Tower Corporation (the “Company”) completed a registered public offering of 750.0 million euros (“EUR”) aggregate principal amount of its 4.000% senior unsecured notes due 2033 (the “notes”), which resulted in aggregate net proceeds to the Company of approximately 742.7 million EUR (approximately $866.7 million at the EUR/U.S. dollar exchange rate of 1.00 EUR = $1.1669, as reported by Bloomberg on May 14, 2026), after deduc…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$195.00 – $240.00 (median $208.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-19
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Real Estate (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AMT American Tower | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | fair | moderate |
WELL Welltower | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | low |
PLD Prologis | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | low |
EQIX Equinix | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SPG Simon Property Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | fair | low |
18 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on improving financial metrics through strategic initiatives and operational efficiency.
Prioritize effective capital allocation to enhance shareholder value and support strategic initiatives.
Ensure smooth transitions in executive roles to maintain strategic continuity and operational stability.
Why it matters: This metric will show if leasing demand remains strong in a competitive market.
Confirms:Organic tenant billings growth exceeds 1.7% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Organic tenant billings growth falls below 1% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in debt will show the company's financial health and risk.
Confirms:Net Leverage Ratio increases above 4.9x in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Net Leverage Ratio decreases below 4.5x in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on cash use will show how the company plans to spend its money.
Confirms one read:Management announces a clear plan for the use of the $866.7 million from the recent bond offering.
Confirms the other:No clear plan or more delays in cash use are shared.
Other Events. American Tower Corporation (the “Company”) is providing an update regarding its relationship with DISH Wireless L.L.C., a subsidiary of DISH Network Corporation (“DISH”). The Company delivered a notice of termination, effective June 2, 2026, to DISH of the Company’s Strategic Collocation Agreement entered into in March 2021 (the “SCA”) and related agreements with DISH. Beginning on January 1, 2026, 100% of DISH revenue has been reflected in churn and this termination is not expe…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. Please refer to the discussion under
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 7, 2026, American Tower Corporation (the “Company”) entered into three separate amendment agreements (each an “Amendment” and collectively, the “Amendments”) to amend the agreements for each of its (i) $6.0 billion senior unsecured multicurrency revolving credit facility, as amended and restated on December 8, 2021, as further amended, with Toronto Dominion (Texas) LLC (“TD”) as Administrative Agent (as defined therein) (the “2021 Multicurren…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, American Tower Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. Exhibit 99.1 is furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of th…