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AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.NYSEMaterialsCoking CoalSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$200.82+6.18%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with AMR trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 41% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from AMR and the performance of sector bellwethers like HCC, METC, and SXC. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Materials
- Industry
- Coking Coal
- Market cap
- $2.40B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2017-05-08
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $200.82. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$145.43consensus
Range $92.03 – $173.13
vs price: +38% above
Method agreement — · 3 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$127.10consensus
Range $127.10 – $127.10
vs price: +58% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $201 AMR trades at 1× p/s, in line with its 1× p/s peer median. Our $145 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
1.2x
peer 1.2x · own history 1.1x
Premium
1.0x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
38%
our forecast -17%
Our fair value
$145.43
range $91.83 – $173.13
WhyEarnings too small for P/E
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 38% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated weak grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=1088).
3rd pctl · Materials
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -3.92x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -59.7% / 30d, n=1for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $3.90 → $1.57 (-59.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: materials is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme copper/electrification.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$224.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$615.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,485.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'expensive'.
As of June 12, 2026, the valuation dimension changed and became expensive. The risk dimension remained elevated. The sector backdrop is facing headwinds. The recent financial performance is described as weak.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 14d
Watch for cash from operations growth
Why it matters: More cash from operations shows better cash flow. This can help with future investments.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Cash from operations grew year over year, reaching over $29.046M.
Disproves:Cash from operations decreases or stays below $29.046M.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AMR yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth turning positive in Materials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like HCC, METC, and SXC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Materials sector momentum should keep lifting AMR and other Materials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If AMR raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-08), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If AMR cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-08), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like HCC, METC, and SXC start missing or guiding lower, the Materials tailwind helping AMR and other Materials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits AMR and other Materials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-081mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 8, 2026, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing earnings and other financial results for its fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-4.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.