Reading AMPH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMPH free→Reading AMPH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMPH free→NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, although AMPH's valuation appears attractive. Peer multiples imply a price about 46% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like HLN, TEVA, and ZTS. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $20.09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $20 AMPH trades at 7× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $35 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $19–$22. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 43% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.13x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.79 → $0.64 (-18.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 7 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 1 maintained. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.4% above current price.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$175.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$471.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,525.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Better cash flow from operations shows stronger finances. This can help support growth.
Confirms:Cash from operations reported higher than in Q1.
Disproves:Cash from operations reported lower than in Q1.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AMPH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$19.00 – $22.00 (median $20.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-03
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Pharmaceuticals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AMPH Amphstar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | expensive | low |
MRK Merck & Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFE Pfizer | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | fair | low |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to prioritize revenue growth as a key strategic focus.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Increase cash flow from operations to support strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows good cost management. This can help make more money.
Confirms:Operating income is higher than last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income is lower or the same as last quarter.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below 10%, it signals a slowdown in the company's performance. This could impact investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Sustaining cash flow is vital for funding operations and growth. A drop could signal cash management issues.
Confirms:Cash from operations remains above $47M.
Disproves:Cash from operations falls below $47M.
Why it matters: A drop in sector growth could impact Amphstar's performance. It indicates broader industry challenges.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below its median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays above its median.