Reading AMGN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMGN free→Reading AMGN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMGN free→NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, AMGN is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $355.20. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $355 AMGN trades at 19× p/e, in line with its 16× p/e peer median. Our $295 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $185–$432. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 20% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.38x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $5.59. 3 raised, 18 cut, 26 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 4.5% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$91.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$248.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,657.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Lower growth may mean competition is hurting Amgen's sales more than expected.
Confirms:Q2 2026 product sales growth is reported below 4% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 2026 product sales growth exceeds 4% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AMGN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Chief Financial Officer — Peter H. Griffith and Thomas Dittrich: Peter H. Griffith is retiring from the CFO role, succeeded by Thomas Dittrich.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$185.00 – $432.00 (median $350.50) · 14 analysts · as of 2026-06-09
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | full | moderate |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | low |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on advancing innovative therapies to sustain long-term growth.
Utilize debt issuance as a strategic tool for capital management.
Focus on integrating scientific, technological, and data capabilities.
Why it matters: A big drop in Otezla sales could show problems with pricing and competition.
Confirms:Otezla sales decline reported worse than 10% year over year in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Otezla sales decline reported better than 10% year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A fall in operating margin might mean rising costs or pricing pressures on profits.
Confirms:Operating margin was below 25% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Operating margin was above 25% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect company plans and how investors feel.
Confirms one read:There is positive feedback about the new CEO's plans and actions.
Confirms the other:Negative feedback or concerns about the new CEO's direction.
Why it matters: Repatha's growth is crucial for Amgen's revenue. Slower growth may indicate market challenges.
Confirms:Repatha sales growth reported below 30% year over year in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Repatha sales growth reported above 30% year over year in Q2 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. First Quarter 2026 Earnings Press Release and Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures On April 30, 2026 , the Company issued a press release announcing its unaudited results of operations for the three months ended March 31, 2026, and its unaudited financial position as of March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. In its press release the Company included certain non-U.S. Generally Accepted Acco…
Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer — David M. Reese: Dr. David M. Reese is retiring from his role, with responsibilities being redistributed to other executives.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 17, 2026, Amgen Inc. (the “Company”) issued and sold $1,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 4.200% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “2031 Notes”), $1,750,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 4.850% Senior Notes due 2036 (the “2036 Notes”), $500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 5.500% Senior Notes due 2046 (the “2046 Notes”) and $750,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 5.650%…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Press Release and Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures On February 3, 2026 , the Company issued a press release announcing its unaudited results of operations for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025, and its unaudited financial position as of December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. In its press release the Company included certain…