Reading ALV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALV free→Reading ALV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALV free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. The company has a capital-unfriendly stance, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, ALV is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $128.53. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $129 ALV trades at 13× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $136 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $116–$138. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 5% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.42x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.43 → $2.38 (-2.0% / 30d). 3 raised, 5 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$131.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$263.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,196.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Hitting the target margin of 10.5-11% is important for financial health. It shows efficiency.
Confirms:Q2 adjusted operating margin is at or above 10.5%.
Disproves:Q2 operating margin is below 10.5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ALV yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Material Impairments. The information contained in
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$116.00 – $138.00 (median $125.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-04-20
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Parts & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ALV Autoliv | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BWA BorgWarner | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | moderate |
MOD Modine Manufacturing Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
APTV Aptiv | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AUR Aurora Innovation Inc | — | — | elevated |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Autoliv plans to close its manufacturing plants in Türkiye, incurring a pre-tax charge of approximately $142 million.
Autoliv continues to maintain its dividend payout, with a declared quarterly dividend of $0.87 per share for Q2 2026.
Autoliv aims for an adjusted operating margin of 10.5-11% for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well Autoliv is managing costs and revenue.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows adjusted operating income is higher than in Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows adjusted operating income is worse than Q1 2026.
Why it matters: The plant closures could impact production costs and margins. Investors will watch for details on execution.
Confirms:Management says the timeline and costs for the plant closures are on track.
Disproves:Delays or increased costs in the plant closures are reported.
Why it matters: Negative cash flow could hurt dividends. Positive cash flow would help them.
Confirms:Cash from operations turns positive in Q2 2026 after a negative $76 million in Q1.
Disproves:Cash from operations remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Closing these plants is a major cost-cutting move. It will impact future earnings.
Confirms:The final pre-tax charge of about $142 million is in Q2 2026.
Disproves:The charge is lower than $142 million, or the closures are delayed.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength. It helps investors trust the cash flow.
Confirms:Management confirms the dividend will remain at $0.87 per share in future quarters.
Disproves:Management says they will cut the dividend payout.
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On May 8, 2026, Autoliv, Inc. (the “Company”) management approved a plan to close its manufacturing plants in Türkiye, which manufacture steering wheels, airbags, and seatbelts. Autoliv expects to incur a final pre-tax charge of approximately $142 million to implement these capacity alignments, the majority of which is expected to be recorded in the second quarter of 2026, of which $13 million is expected to be a non-cash charge from fixed as…
Other Events. Second Quarter Dividend In a press release dated May 6, 2026, the Company announced that the Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.87 cents per share for the second quarter of 2026. The dividend will be payable on Monday, June 8, 2026 to the holders of Company common stock and on Tuesday, June 9, 2026 to the holders of the Company's Swedish Depository Receipts. The dividend payments will be made to holders of record on the close of business on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. A copy…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 17, 2026, Autoliv, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter of 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated herein by reference. This press release contains certain references to financial measures identified as “organic sales,” “adjusted operating income,” “adjusted operating margin,” “adjusted other non-operating items, net,”…