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Align TechnologyNASDAQHealth CareMedical Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$174.84-0.95%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, ALGN is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and the performance of sector bellwethers.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Medical Instruments & Supplies
- Market cap
- $12.64B
- Employees
- 130,015
- IPO date
- 2000-11-14
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-29
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $174.84. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$219.01consensus
Range $189.96 – $224.08
vs price: -20% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$276.31consensus
Range $223.69 – $278.24
vs price: -37% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $175 ALGN trades at 16× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $219 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $188–$235. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
15.9x
peer 20.0x · own history 23.6x
Premium
0.8x peer
0.7x its own history
Growth the price needs
-20%
our forecast 4%
Our fair value
$219.01
range $182.54 – $224.08
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 20% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
88th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.61x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
52nd pctl · Health Care
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearish13 analysts, 69% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.63 → $2.60 (-1.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 13 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 69% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.5 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Guidance credibility
- neutral
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$186.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$362.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,973.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- score change · valuation_scoresmall change
Valuation rose by 10.1 points (from 55.8 to 65.9).
As of June 12, 2026, valuation rose. The sector backdrop fell. Risk remained elevated. Management was noted as volatile.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 18d
Watch for Q2'26 Clear Aligner volume growth to meet guidance
Why it matters: If Clear Aligner volume growth meets or exceeds guidance, it shows strong demand.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2'26 Clear Aligner volume growth of 3% to 5% year-over-year.
Disproves:Clear Aligner volume growth is below 3% compared to last year.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ALGN yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Health Care revenue growth dropping below 8% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like ISRG, MDLN, and BDX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting ALGN and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If ALGN raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for ALGN and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If ALGN cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like ISRG, MDLN, and BDX start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping ALGN and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-291mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Align Technology, Inc. issued a press release and will hold a conference call regarding its financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. This information is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorp…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+7.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.