Reading ALB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALB free→Reading ALB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALB free→NYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 136% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $170.42. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $170, ALB's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 73× p/e (3.6× the 20× p/e peer median, and 1.6× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~136% near-term growth vs our ~10% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $72 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $153–$264. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 136% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted -4.64x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
16 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated volatile grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=235).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.39 → $3.07 (+28.9% / 30d). 10 raised, 2 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 52% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 29.3% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$239.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$654.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,188.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The sale will change Albemarle's finances and focus. A successful sale shows clear plans.
Confirms:The sale of Ketjen is complete.
Disproves:Delays or issues reported in the Ketjen sale process.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ALB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously reported, Donald J. LaBauve Jr., the former Chief Accounting Officer of Albemarle Corporation (the “Company”), retired on June 1, 2026. Neal R. Sheorey, the Company's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will serve as the Company's interim Principal Accounting Officer, effective June 2, 2026, until the Company’s Board…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$153.00 – $264.00 (median $220.00) · 18 analysts · as of 2026-05-26
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Specialty Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ALB Albemarle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | moderate |
ECL Ecolab | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PPG PPG Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LYB LyondellBasell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | — | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Albemarle aims to maintain its revenue guidance for 2026 between $4.1 billion and $4.3 billion.
Albemarle aims to achieve an adjusted EBITDA target of $0.9 to $1.0 billion for 2026.
Albemarle plans to maintain capital expenditures flat at $550 million to $600 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Albemarle can meet revenue and EBITDA targets. Investors will gauge performance after a recent earnings miss.
Confirms one read:Q1 2026 earnings show net sales over $1.4 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is over $269 million.
Confirms the other:Q1 2026 earnings report shows net sales under $1.4 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is under $269 million.
Why it matters: Albemarle must lower costs and boost productivity for better finances. Progress shows it is more efficient.
Confirms:Management reports over $450 million in cost savings in Q2.
Disproves:Management does not report big cost savings or lowers its targets.
Why it matters: Changes in lithium prices will impact revenue and profitability. Higher prices can boost earnings.
Confirms:Lithium market prices rise above $20 per kg LCE.
Disproves:Lithium market prices fall below $10 per kg LCE.
Why it matters: Spending plans will show if Albemarle can stay flexible. Flat spending means stability.
Confirms one read:Capital spending stays flat at about $550 million.
Confirms the other:Capital spending rises a lot above $600 million.
Why it matters: Selling Ketjen's controlling stake will affect Albemarle's money and growth plans. It's important to track its performance.
Confirms:KPS Capital Partners will give updates on Ketjen's performance and growth in six months.
Disproves:Look for negative reports on Ketjen's performance or problems in six months.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026 , Albemarle Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. In addition, on May 7, 2026, the Company will hold a teleconference for analysts and media to discuss results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The teleconference will be webcast on the Company…
Chief Accounting Officer — Donald J. LaBauve Jr.: Mr. LaBauve is retiring after more than 36 years of service.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 19, 2026, Albemarle Corporation (the “Company”), Albemarle Europe Srl, the lenders party thereto and Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent, entered into the third amendment (the “Third Amendment”) to that certain amended and restated credit agreement dated as of October 28, 2022, as previously amended on February 9, 2024 and October 31, 2024 (the “2022 Credit Agreement”). The Third Amendment modifies the 2022 Credit Agreement by, a…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. On March 2, 2026, Albemarle Corporation, a Virginia corporation (the “Company” or “Albemarle”), completed the previously announced sale of its 51% ownership interests (the “Sale”) in Ketjen Corporation, a Delaware corporation (“Ketjen”), to ChemCat AcquisitionCo, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company organized by and affiliated with KPS Capital Partners LP, a New York based private equity firm. Ketjen’s business consists of developing, m…