Reading AIZ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AIZ free→
AIZ
AssurantNYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$260.99+0.96%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been volatile, and it has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, while compared with sector peers, AIZ is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Insurance - Property & Casualty
- Market cap
- $12.81B
- Employees
- 14,800
- IPO date
- 2003-10-24
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $260.99. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$303.04consensus
Range $257.47 – $340.65
vs price: -14% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$332.49consensus
Range $288.72 – $405.21
vs price: -22% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $261 AIZ trades at 12× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $303 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $246–$290. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
12.3x
peer 14.6x · own history 12.5x
Premium
0.8x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-14%
our forecast 12%
Our fair value
$303.04
range $262.71 – $340.82
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 14% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
58th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 1.68x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
72nd pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish7 analysts, 100% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $5.25 → $5.16 (-1.7% / 30d). 3 raised, 3 cut, 7 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.6% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$89.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$211.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,258.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 7d
Watch for Q2 Adjusted EBITDA growth below 6%
Why it matters: This shows slower growth for Global Lifestyle. This is important for overall performance.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 Adjusted EBITDA growth is reported below 6% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 Adjusted EBITDA growth exceeds 6% year over year.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AIZ yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
- Watch for changes in FOMC interest rate policy on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like CB, PGR, and TRV keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting AIZ and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If AIZ reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-05), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on AIZ and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like CB, PGR, and TRV start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping AIZ and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits AIZ and other Financials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-051mo agoItem 2.02
shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section 18, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as may be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filing.
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+10 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.