Reading AHCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AHCO free→Reading AHCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AHCO free→NASDAQHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the company is currently unprofitable, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $10.16. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $10 AHCO trades at 20× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $12 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $11–$18. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 17% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted -7.53x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.22 → $0.15 (-31.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 4 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$115.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$376.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,788.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in demand. This would impact future plans.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below 10% year over year in Q2 results.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays at or above 10% year over year in Q2 results.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AHCO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Chief Operating Officer — Daniel McFadden: Daniel McFadden was promoted to Chief Operating Officer with an increase in compensation and a one-time grant of restricted stock units.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$11.00 – $18.00 (median $14.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AHCO AdaptHealth Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | fair | elevated |
ABT Abbott Laboratories | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
ISRG Intuitive Surgical | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SYK Stryker Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MDT Medtronic | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on raising net revenue guidance and achieving higher revenue figures.
Improve cash flow from operations to support financial stability.
Focus on increasing operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Why it matters: Management aims to improve operating income. A positive change would show progress.
Confirms:Q2 operating income increases from $5.5M in Q1 2026.
Disproves:Q2 operating income decreases or stays below $5.5M.
Why it matters: A smooth transition can make operations run better. This matters after recent leadership changes.
Confirms one read:Operational metrics are getting better. This shows improved management with the new COO.
Confirms the other:Operational metrics drop or stay the same after the COO transition.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow shows the company is managing its finances better. This can support growth plans.
Confirms:Cash from operations increases by more than 10% compared to the previous quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operations declines or stays flat compared to the previous quarter.
Chief Operating Officer — Toby Scott Barnhart: The company terminated Toby Scott Barnhart's employment as Chief Operating Officer.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The following information is furnished pursuant to Regulation FD. On May 5, 2026, AdaptHealth Corp. (the "Company") issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “…