Reading AGCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AGCO free→Reading AGCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AGCO free→NYSEIndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact AGCO's performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 23% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include AGCO's guidance on the next call and the performance of sector bellwethers like CAT, DE, and PCAR. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $112.49. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $112 AGCO trades at 19× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $146 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $108–$134. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 23% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.02x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.49 → $1.45 (-2.8% / 30d). 5 raised, 7 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$143.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$291.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,262.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Input costs affect farmers' buying power and AGCO's sales.
Confirms:If input costs go down, farmer profits will improve.
Disproves:Input costs rise further, squeezing farmer margins and demand.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AGCO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, AGCO Corporation (“AGCO” or the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. In the press release, AGCO uses non-GAAP financial measures. For purposes of SEC Regulation G, a “non-GAAP financial measure” is a numerical measure of a registrant’s historical or future performance, financial position or cash…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$108.00 – $134.00 (median $123.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-14
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AGCO AGCO | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MTZ MasTec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CW Curtiss-Wright | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRS Carpenter Technology | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ATI ATI Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
AGCO aims to increase net sales through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
AGCO is focused on improving gross profit margins through cost management and operational efficiency.
AGCO plans to commence $350 million in share repurchases in the second quarter of 2026.
AGCO's Board approved an increase in the regular quarterly dividend to $0.30 per share.
Management aims to enhance operating income through efficiency improvements.
Why it matters: Better margins show AGCO is making more money. This is important for long-term growth.
Confirms:Gross profit margins reported above 25% for Q2.
Disproves:Gross profit margins reported below 22% for Q2.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows better efficiency. This helps AGCO make more money.
Confirms:Operating income was over $90M for Q2.
Disproves:Operating income was under $70M for Q2.
Why it matters: Sales trends in North America will show if demand is recovering or still weak.
Confirms one read:North American tractor sales are getting better after an 8% drop.
Confirms the other:North American tractor sales continue to decline or remain flat.
Why it matters: The $350 million share buyback shows that management believes in future growth.
Confirms:AGCO starts share buybacks in Q2 2026.
Disproves:There is no news or delay about the planned share buybacks.
Why it matters: Macro data can affect AGCO's performance. Good signals may mean a better growth environment.
Confirms one read:June macro data shows growth in the industrial sector.
Confirms the other:June macro data shows continued decline in industrial sector growth.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would show AGCO is on track with its growth strategy. It would also help counter the sector's slowing growth trend.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.