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AES CorporationNYSEUtilitiesUtilities - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$14.68+0.07%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 72% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. If AES cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Utilities - Diversified
- Market cap
- $10.45B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-05-06
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $14.68. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$53.08consensus
Range $31.49 – $60.93
vs price: -72% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$30.15consensus
Range $19.65 – $44.40
vs price: -51% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $15 AES trades at 5× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $53 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
4.9x
peer 20.4x · own history 8.7x
Premium
0.2x peer
0.6x its own history
Growth the price needs
-72%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$52.66
range $31.49 – $60.93
WhyPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 72% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated weak grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
14th pctl · Utilities
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 3.67x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated robust grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
89th pctl · Utilities
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised +5.6% / 30d, n=2for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.49 → $0.51 (+5.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 9% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: utilities is in maturing, with stable trajectory (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$21.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$255.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,898.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 18d
Watch for AES to confirm its 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance.
Why it matters: Confirming guidance shows AES is confident about its financial health and growth.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:AES reaffirms 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2,650 to $2,850 million.
Disproves:AES cuts its 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to below $2,650 million.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AES yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for utilities to grow revenue faster than 7% year over year.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for AES and other Utilities names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like SRE, AVA, and UTL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Utilities sector momentum should keep lifting AES and other Utilities names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If AES raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2025-11-04), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If AES cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2025-11-04), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like SRE, AVA, and UTL start missing or guiding lower, the Utilities tailwind helping AES and other Utilities names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-121d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. As previously disclosed, on March 1, 2026, The AES Corporation (the “ Company ” or “ AES ”) entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with Horizon Parent, L.P., a Delaware limited partnership (“ Parent ”), and Horizon Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of Parent (“ Merger Sub ”) , pursuant to which, on the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein, Merger Sub will merge with and into the Company (the “ M…
Legal / regulatorynegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-6.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.