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AEIS
Advanced EnergyNASDAQInformation TechnologyElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$354.37+4.10%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like NVDA and AMD. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Electrical Equipment & Parts
- Market cap
- $13.62B
- Employees
- 13,000
- IPO date
- 1996-05-13
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $354.37. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$327.11consensus
Range $225.66 – $455.88
vs price: +8% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$658.99consensus
Range $472.71 – $1145.92
vs price: -46% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $354 AEIS trades at 49× p/e, below its 62× p/e peer median. Our $299 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $315–$430. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
48.7x
peer 62.1x · own history 25.6x
Premium
0.8x peer
1.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
18%
our forecast 12%
Our fair value
$299.23
range $211.81 – $455.88
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 18% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
91st pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.04x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
22nd pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish1 positive, 2 negative material events / 30dfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.20 → $2.20 (-0.1% / 30d). 9 raised, 1 cut, 11 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 70% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 29.8% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 3 guided quarters · 76.8% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$217.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$513.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,426.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- score change · company_momentum_scoremoderate change
Company momentum fell by 21.5 points (from 42.4 to 20.9).
- label change · confidence_labelsmall change
Confidence changed from 'medium' to 'high'.
Company momentum fell. Confidence changed to high.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 7d
Watch for confirmation of the share buyback plan
Why it matters: A confirmed buyback shows that management wants to give value back to shareholders. This can help boost investor confidence.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:A press release confirms the start of the share buyback program.
Disproves:No announcement or delay in the share buyback program.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AEIS yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in Information Technology to fall below the median.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for AEIS and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like NVDA, AMD, and AVGO keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting AEIS and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If AEIS raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-04), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If AEIS cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-04), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like NVDA, AMD, and AVGO start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping AEIS and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-121d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On June 12, 2026, Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. issued a press release announcing that it had issued a notice of redemption to redeem on September 23, 2026, all $136,709,000 of its remaining outstanding 2.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2028. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein.
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-6.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.