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AutodeskNASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$198.43-3.47%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is neutral. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Compared with sector peers, ADSK is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 5% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The three-year read shows peer multiples imply a price about 27% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis). ADSK's outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Software - Application
- Market cap
- $43.41B
- Employees
- 14,300
- IPO date
- 1994-06-14
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $198.43. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$189.33consensus
Range $166.88 – $239.18
vs price: +5% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$273.76consensus
Range $246.04 – $347.30
vs price: -28% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $198 ADSK trades at 18× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $190 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $262–$369. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
17.8x
peer 21.2x · own history 31.6x
Premium
0.8x peer
0.6x its own history
Growth the price needs
5%
our forecast 17%
Our fair value
$189.75
range $166.25 – $239.18
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 5% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
76th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.90x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
59th pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish5 PT revisions / 30d, avg 33.4% above currentfor period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $3.04 → $3.12 (+2.5% / 30d). 21 raised, 2 cut, 25 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 10 maintained. 91% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 33.4% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$159.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$408.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,928.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for Q2 revenue guidance to exceed $2,015 million
Why it matters: If revenue is higher than expected, it shows strong business growth and momentum.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue reported above $2,015 million.
Disproves:Q2 revenue reported below $2,005 million.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-121d agoETAuto.com
Advances: Optimize sales and marketing
Enhances sales and marketing through targeted digital platform.
ReinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in Information Technology to fall below the median.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for ADSK and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and NOW keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting ADSK and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If ADSK reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-28), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and NOW start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping ADSK and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits ADSK and other Tech names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2816d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 28, 2026, Autodesk, Inc. (“Autodesk” or the “Company”) issued a press release reporting financial results for the first fiscal quarter ended April 30, 2026. The press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The exhibit shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-4.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.