Reading ADNT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ADNT free→Reading ADNT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ADNT free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 47% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly influence ADNT's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $22.68. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $23 ADNT trades at 12× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $43 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $28–$33. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 47% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 9.25x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.61 → $0.54 (-11.5% / 30d). 4 raised, 7 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 54% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 200.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$183.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$446.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,119.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for Adient. A strong quarter could indicate successful strategic initiatives.
Confirms:Revenue exceeds $4B in Q3.
Disproves:Revenue stays below $3.9B in Q3.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ADNT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026 , Adient plc (the “Company”) issued a news release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended March 31, 2026. The news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporate…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$28.00 – $33.00 (median $30.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Parts & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ADNT Adient | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
BWA BorgWarner | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | moderate |
MOD Modine Manufacturing Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
APTV Aptiv | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AUR Aurora Innovation Inc | — | — | elevated |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on growing revenue through strategic business wins and market expansion.
Improve gross profit through operational efficiencies and strategic initiatives.
Focus on increasing operating income through cost control and revenue growth.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows better cost control. This can help profits in the long run.
Confirms:Operating income rises by over 10% from Q1.
Disproves:Operating income falls or stays the same from Q1.
Why it matters: Changes in the Consumer Price Index could impact consumer spending and Adient's sales. This is crucial for revenue growth.
Confirms one read:CPI shows lower inflation. This leads to more consumer spending.
Confirms the other:CPI shows higher inflation. This leads to less consumer spending.
Why it matters: Improving revenue growth would show Adient is on track with its growth goals. This could boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 4% year over year, indicating a positive trend.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth is under 4% from last year. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Gross profit has been going down. A positive change means better cost control and efficiency.
Confirms:Gross profit increases to over $270M in Q3.
Disproves:Gross profit decreases further below $257M in Q3.