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ADM
Archer Daniels MidlandNYSEConsumer StaplesFarm ProductsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$80.24+1.70%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts and sector trends among peers. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Farm Products
- Market cap
- $38.03B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1994-02-09
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $80.24. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$69.14consensus
Range $56.70 – $214.65
vs price: +16% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$258.95consensus
Range $144.19 – $505.78
vs price: -69% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $80 ADM trades at 23× p/e — 1.3× the 18× p/e peer median, and above its own 13× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $69 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $58–$90. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
23.4x
peer 17.6x · own history 13.1x
Premium
1.3x peer
1.8x its own history
Growth the price needs
16%
our forecast -5%
Our fair value
$69.14
range $56.90 – $214.89
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 16% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
94th pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 5.50x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
92nd pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutral7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +40.5% / 30d, n=8for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.00 → $1.41 (+40.5% / 30d). 8 raised, 0 cut, 8 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 9% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.0 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 2 guided quarters · 29.2% avg surprise
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$141.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$235.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,279.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- score change · company_momentum_scoremoderate change
Company momentum rose by 28.1 points (from 32.9 to 61.0).
- label change · confidence_labelsmall change
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
Company momentum rose. Confidence changed to medium. The signal changed to mild favorable.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for clarity on U.S. biofuel policy
Why it matters: Clearer biofuel policies could help ADM make more money and improve operations.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Announcement of a new U.S. biofuel policy that supports higher ethanol margins.
Disproves:Delays or unclear biofuel policies could hurt profit margins.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ADM yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Consumer Price Index data on June 10
- Watch for Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report on June 17
- Watch for FOMC decision on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for ADM and other Consumer Staples names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If ADM beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a beat of +8% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit ADM and other Consumer Staples names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If ADM reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-05), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- Consumer Staples has been in a strong run; if sector bellwethers like BG, TSN, and CALM start showing cracks (missed prints, soft guidance), ADM and other Consumer Staples names could lose the sector tailwind.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-051mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) issued a press release announcing first quarter results. A copy of such press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or t…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.