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ADEA
Adeia, Inc.NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$31.92-2.15%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, while management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is elevated, with the sector backdrop providing a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 82% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This valuation suggests that ADEA trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. If ADEA cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Software - Application
- Market cap
- $3.60B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2020-08-10
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $31.92. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$17.32consensus
Range $12.92 – $17.57
vs price: +84% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$11.96consensus
Range $8.97 – $13.42
vs price: +167% above
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $32 ADEA trades at 18× p/e — 1.8× the 10× p/e peer median, and above its own 10× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $17 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $35–$43. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
18.0x
peer 9.8x · own history 9.9x
Premium
1.8x peer
1.8x its own history
Growth the price needs
84%
our forecast 10%
Our fair value
$17.32
range $12.93 – $17.57
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 84% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
High fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
94th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.31x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
32nd pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -13.1% / 30d, n=4for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.35 → $0.31 (-13.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 4 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in growth, with decelerating (~1.0 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$217.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$465.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,481.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayMedium confidenceMonthsactive 7d
Watch for updates on CEO succession plan
Why it matters: The new CEO may change the company’s plans and actions. We need clear information.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:An announcement about the new CEO's plans and goals.
Confirms the other:No clear updates on the CEO change or ongoing confusion.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ADEA yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in Information Technology to fall below the median.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for ADEA and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and NOW keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting ADEA and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If ADEA raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-04), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If ADEA cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-04), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and NOW start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping ADEA and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-041mo agoItem 5.02
CEO — Paul E. Davis: Mr. Davis is stepping down to focus on his health and personal pursuits.
Executive changenegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-11 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.