Reading ACT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ACT free→Reading ACT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ACT free→NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating some uncertainty in cash backing reported profits. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, which could affect overall performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends, as these could significantly impact ACT's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $42.41. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $42 ACT trades at 9× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $51 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 17% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.07x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.19 → $1.19 (-0.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$86.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$221.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,096.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A higher loss ratio means more claims. This could cause profit problems.
Confirms:Loss ratio reported above 20% in the next quarter.
Disproves:Loss ratio is under 20%. This shows claims are stable.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ACT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2) is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ACT Enact Holdings, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | fair | moderate |
RKT ROCKET COMPANIES INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 10 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ESNT Essent Group Ltd. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
PFSI PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
UWMC UWM Holdings Corp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Maintain disciplined execution and resilient credit performance to drive long-term value.
Continue to grow new insurance written while managing expenses and risks.
Increase capital return to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
Focus on increasing operating income through strategic initiatives.
Continue efforts to enhance net income through operational efficiencies.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows, it may signal a tougher environment for the company. This could affect future earnings and investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth stays at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would signal weakening demand in a tough housing market.
Confirms:New insurance written reported below $12 billion in the next quarter.
Disproves:New insurance written is over $12 billion. This shows strong demand.
Why it matters: Better operating income means the company is controlling costs well. This can lead to more profit.
Confirms:Operating income increases by more than 2% in Q2 compared to Q1.
Disproves:Operating income growth is less than or equal to 2% in Q2 compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Faster net income growth shows the company is financially healthy. This may increase investor trust.
Confirms:Net income increases by more than 2% in Q2 compared to Q1.
Disproves:Net income growth is less than or equal to 2% in Q2 compared to Q1.
Why it matters: A drop below this level could raise worries. It may affect financial stability.
Confirms:PMIERs sufficiency reported below 160% in the next quarter.
Disproves:PMIERs sufficiency is at or above 160%. This shows a strong capital position.