Reading ACMR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ACMR free→Reading ACMR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ACMR free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductor Equipment & MaterialsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well backed by cash. Management's track record is neutral, and risk is high, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind, although ACMR trades below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and the performance of sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $93.95. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $94 ACMR trades at 68× p/e, in line with its 62× p/e peer median. Our $91 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 3% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 28%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.50x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.35 → $0.34 (-3.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 88% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.8% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$275.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$689.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,634.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
The valuation changed, moving to a full label. Risk fell. The sector backdrop remained a tailwind, while recent financial performance was strong. The earnings quality was described as fragile.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would signal weakening demand and challenge the growth outlook.
Confirms:Q2 revenue grew less than 21% compared to last year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth meets or exceeds 21% year-over-year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ACMR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, we issued a press release announcing financial results for the first quarter of 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference . The information contained in this Item 2.02, including the exhibit furnished hereto, is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Semiconductor Materials & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ACMR ACM Research, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | full | high |
ASML ASML Holding N.V. | — | — | moderate |
AMAT Applied Materials | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | elevated |
LRCX Lam Research | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | elevated |
KLAC KLA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
ACM aims to achieve 21%-30% revenue growth in 2026, supported by new product cycles and market share gains.
ACM is taking steps to expand its capabilities in global markets, including a proposed Hong Kong listing and ramp-up of its Oregon facility.
ACM expects 2026 to be a big year for new products, with contributions from Tahoe, SPM, and vertical furnace.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 12, 2026, ACM Research, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with certain U.S. institutional investors named therein managed by Tekne Capital Management, LLC (the “Investors”). Pursuant to the Purchase Agreement, the Company agreed to issue and sell to the Investors in a registered direct offering (the “Offering”) an aggregate of 2,884,615 shares (the “Shares”) of Class A common stock, p…
Other Events. As previously disclosed, on May 12, 2026, ACM Research, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with certain investors named therein (the “Investors”). Pursuant to the Purchase Agreement, the Company agreed to issue and sell to the Investors in a registered direct offering (the “Offering”) an aggregate of 2,884,615 shares (the “Shares”) of Class A common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (“Common Stock”) at an offering price…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 27, 2026, we issued a press release entitled “ACM Research Announces Preliminary Unaudited Revenue and Shipments for the First Quarter 2026.” The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including the exhibit furnished hereto, is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securiti…