Reading ACM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ACM free→
ACM
AECOMNYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$70.12+0.76%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile, and management is volatile. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, ACM is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 61% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk because recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Engineering & Construction
- Market cap
- $8.94B
- Employees
- 51,000
- IPO date
- 2007-03-08
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-03
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $70.12. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$179.38consensus
Range $151.06 – $194.06
vs price: -61% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$240.57consensus
Range $204.33 – $280.42
vs price: -71% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $70 ACM trades at 13× p/e, below its 34× p/e peer median. Our $185 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $90–$116. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
12.6x
peer 34.1x · own history 22.6x
Premium
0.4x peer
0.6x its own history
Growth the price needs
-62%
our forecast 3%
Our fair value
$184.80
range $151.06 – $194.06
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 62% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
60th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.10x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
25th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral9 analysts, 85% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.56 → $1.54 (-1.4% / 30d). 3 raised, 4 cut, 9 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 85% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 25.9% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$135.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$268.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,861.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · confidence_labelsmall change
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'favorable'.
Confidence changed to medium. The signal changed to favorable.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 14d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth results on August 3, 2026
Why it matters: This will show if AECOM is improving its revenue growth. It is key for future plans.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 6% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 3% year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-111d agoYahoo! Finance
Advances: Increase revenue growth
Defense wins could significantly boost revenue growth.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like PWR, FIX, and EME keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting ACM and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If ACM raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-11), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If ACM cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-11), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like PWR, FIX, and EME start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping ACM and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits ACM and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-112d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 10, 2026, AECOM entered into that certain Credit Agreement (the “ Revolving Credit Agreement ”), by and among AECOM, as borrower, certain domestic subsidiaries of AECOM from time to time party thereto, as designated borrowers (together with AECOM, the “ Borrowers ”), the lenders from time to time party thereto (the “ Lenders ”) and Bank of America, N.A. (the “ Administrative Agent ”) as administrative agent and swing line lender. The Revolvi…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+3.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.