Reading ACLS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ACLS free→Reading ACLS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ACLS free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductor Equipment & MaterialsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind, suggesting favorable conditions in the broader market. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes from ACLS and performance from sector bellwethers like ASML and AMAT. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $180.12. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $180 ACLS trades at 40× p/e, below its 62× p/e peer median. Our $205 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 12% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.96x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.81 → $0.89 (+9.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 1.4% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$231.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$481.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,620.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This will show if Axcelis is improving its revenue growth focus. A drop below 10% signals trouble.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported at or above 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ACLS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 7, 2026, Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding its financial results for its quarter ended March 31, 2026. The Company’s press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated by reference herein.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Semiconductor Materials & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ACLS Axcelis Technologies, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | elevated |
ASML ASML Holding N.V. | — | — | moderate |
AMAT Applied Materials | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | elevated |
LRCX Lam Research | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | elevated |
KLAC KLA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Axcelis Technologies aims to drive revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Axcelis aims to enhance gross profit margins through operational efficiencies.
Axcelis is focused on enhancing operating income through cost management.
Why it matters: A drop below median growth could signal broader sector weakness. This would impact Axcelis and its peers.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below its median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays above its median.
Why it matters: A rise in operating income shows cost management is getting better. This can boost investor trust.
Confirms:Operating income goes back above $10M.
Disproves:Operating income stays below $10M.
Why it matters: Better margins mean Axcelis is managing costs well. This helps Axcelis make more money.
Confirms:Gross profit margins reported above 45%.
Disproves:Gross profit margins reported below 40%.
Why it matters: This will show if Axcelis is enhancing its operating income as planned. Growth above 15% is a good sign.
Confirms:Operating income grew more than 15% compared to last year.
Disproves:Operating income grew less than 5% compared to last year.