Reading ACHC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ACHC free→
ACHC
Acadia HealthcareNASDAQHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$24.60-1.17%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 21% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Medical Care Facilities
- Market cap
- $2.29B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2011-11-14
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-29
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $24.60. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$29.14consensus
Range $28.79 – $30.20
vs price: -16% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$25.20consensus
Range $20.85 – $30.20
vs price: -2% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfull
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $25 ACHC trades at 12× p/e, below its 14× p/e peer median. Our $29 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $22–$31. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
12.4x
peer 14.5x · own history 18.0x
Premium
0.9x peer
0.7x its own history
Growth the price needs
-15%
our forecast 8%
Our fair value
$28.79
range $28.76 – $30.20
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 15% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
17th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -0.16x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatile3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised -5.8% / 30d, n=13for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.38 → $0.36 (-5.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 3 cut, 13 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 53% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 25.3% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing (~0.5 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 34.5% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$232.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$584.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,711.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 7d
Watch for Q2 2026 revenue guidance between $835M and $850M
Why it matters: This range will show if Acadia can maintain growth momentum. Meeting or exceeding it signals strong demand.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue reported at or above $850 million.
Disproves:Q2 revenue reported below $835 million.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ACHC yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Health Care revenue growth dropping below 8% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like HCA, THC, and DVA keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting ACHC and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for ACHC and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If ACHC beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a big beat of +42% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If ACHC reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-04-29), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like HCA, THC, and DVA start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping ACHC and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-1826d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. San Diego Health Alliance, Inc. d/b/a Fashion Valley CTC (“Fashion Valley”), an indirect subsidiary of Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (the “Company”), is a defendant in an employment-related lawsuit filed in the Superior Court of San Diego County, California. Fashion Valley operates a comprehensive treatment center where a former employee who was terminated in October 2023 filed suit alleging retaliatory termination. Fashion Valley vehemently denied the allegations and asserted…
Legal / regulatorynegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-6.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.