Reading ACGL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ACGL free→Reading ACGL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ACGL free→NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, indicating challenges in the current environment. Peer multiples imply a price about 27% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts from ACGL and the performance of sector bellwethers like BRK-B, AIG, and HIG. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $91.66. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $92 ACGL trades at 8× p/e, below its 11× p/e peer median. Our $120 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $100–$114. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 24% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.21x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.41 → $2.41 (+0.1% / 30d). 3 raised, 12 cut, 19 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$74.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$247.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,408.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The combined ratio shows how well the company is doing. Better numbers mean better management.
Confirms:The combined ratio is over 85% for Q2. This means worse performance in underwriting.
Disproves:The combined ratio improves to below 80% for Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ACGL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Arch Capital Group Ltd. (“Arch” or the “Company”) announced today that David Gansberg is stepping down from his role as a President of Arch effective immediately and will be departing the Company following a distinguished tenure, having played an important role in building the organization to its current position. In his role, Mr. Gansberg oversaw…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$100.00 – $114.00 (median $103.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-01
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ACGL Arch Capital Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CB Chubb Limited | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Arch Capital Group has increased its share repurchase authorization by $3.0 billion.
Arch Capital Group is focusing on growing underwriting income across its segments.
Arch Capital Group is committed to maintaining dividends on its preferred shares.
Why it matters: Growth in underwriting income shows the company can manage risks well. This helps it make more money.
Confirms:Q2 underwriting income increases year over year by more than 10%.
Disproves:Q2 underwriting income declines year over year or stays flat.
Why it matters: Net investment income affects overall profits. It shows how well the investment strategy works.
Confirms one read:Net investment income increases by more than 5% in Q2.
Confirms the other:Net investment income decreases by more than 5% in Q2.
Why it matters: A new CEO can change the company’s path. This can also affect how investors feel.
Confirms one read:Positive strategic changes announced by the new CEO that align with growth.
Confirms the other:Negative comments or doubts about the new CEO's plans.
Why it matters: More share repurchases can show that management is confident. This can help support share value.
Confirms:Arch announces share repurchases of at least $1 billion in the next quarter.
Disproves:There are no big share repurchase announcements expected in the next quarter.
Why it matters: More share buybacks can show that management believes in the company's value and future.
Confirms:They announced share buybacks over $1 billion.
Disproves:No new share buyback news or cuts to the current program.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 9, 2026, Arch Capital Group Ltd. (the “Issuer”), completed the public offering of (i) $600,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 5.250% senior notes due 2036 (the “2036 Notes”) and (ii) $1,400,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 5.950% senior notes due 2056 (the “2056 Notes” and, together with the 2036 Notes, the “Notes”). The Notes have been registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), pursuant to the Is…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 2, 2026, Arch Capital Group Ltd. (“ACGL” or the “Issuer”) entered into an Underwriting Agreement pursuant to which the Issuer agreed to sell, and the underwriters named therein agreed to purchase, subject to and upon terms and conditions set forth therein, (i) $600,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 5.250% senior notes due 2036 (the “2036 Notes”) and (ii) $1,400,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 5.950% senior notes due 2056 (the “2056…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement. The information provided in
Other Events . On June 2, 2026, Arch Capital Group Ltd. (“ACGL”) issued a press release announcing that its wholly-owned subsidiaries, Arch Capital Group (U.S.) Inc. (“Arch Capital Group (U.S.)”) and Arch Capital Finance LLC (“Arch Capital Finance”), commenced cash tender offers to purchase (the “Tender Offers”) for a combined aggregate purchase price of up to $350 million (i) Arch Capital Group (U.S.)’s outstanding 5.144% Senior Notes due 2043, and (ii) Arch Capital Finance’s outstanding 5.0…