Reading ABG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ABG free→Reading ABG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ABG free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto & Truck DealershipsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Risk is moderate, and the company's earnings yield is above the sector (a relatively high yield). Peer multiples imply a price about 52% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $199.53. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $200 ABG trades at 7× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $420 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $202–$254. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 53% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.41x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $6.58 → $6.46 (-1.8% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 27% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 6.3% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$122.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$318.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,372.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Improving gross profit margins would show that management's efforts are working. This could boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Gross profit margin increases year over year by more than 5%.
Disproves:Gross profit margin remains flat or declines year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ABG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
President and Chief Executive Officer — Daniel Clara: Daniel Clara was promoted to President and Chief Executive Officer.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$202.00 – $254.00 (median $220.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ABG Asbury Automotive Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ORLY O’Reilly Automotive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
AZO AutoZone | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | full | moderate |
PAG Penske Automotive Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | full | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue efforts to improve operational efficiency to enhance profitability.
Aim to improve gross profit margins through strategic initiatives.
Continue to increase cash generated from operating activities.
Why it matters: Consumer spending impacts sales; trends can signal future revenue growth.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows consumer spending growth above 4% year over year.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows consumer spending growth below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company is improving its profit margins and cash flow.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows gross profit margins improving above 66%.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows gross profit margins declining or below 66%.
Why it matters: More cash from operations helps support growth plans. This is important for future investments.
Confirms:Cash from operations increases by more than 20% compared to the previous quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operations decreases or grows less than 10% compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Better efficiency helps cut costs. It also makes more money.
Confirms:Management says the efficiency score is now over 50%.
Disproves:The efficiency score is still under 40%.
Why it matters: More cash from operations is important for growth and stability.
Confirms:Cash from operations is up, raising the progress score above 50%.
Disproves:Cash from operations is flat or down, keeping the score below 40%.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued an earnings release on April 28, 2026, announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the earnings release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report. The information furnished in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amende…