Reading AAON? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AAON free→Reading AAON? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AAON free→NASDAQIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile. Management's recent track record has been unsteady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, AAON is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 274% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. Rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. AAON's outlook hinges on sector trends and guidance changes. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $127.19. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $127, AAON's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 7× p/s (4.3× the 2× p/s peer median, and 1.0× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~268% near-term growth vs our ~29% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $35 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 268% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 29%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.37x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.46 → $0.49 (+5.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$223.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$514.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,075.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Higher gross margins show better cost control. This helps the company make more money.
Confirms:Gross margin exceeds 28% in Q2.
Disproves:Gross margin remains below 27% in Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AAON yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Regulation FD Disclosure On June 2, 2026, the Company participated in William Blair Growth Stock Conference located at the Loews Chicago Hotel, 455 N Park Dr, Chicago, IL 60611. The event included a presentation given by Matt Tobolski, CEO & President and Andy Cheung, CFO and Treasurer. A copy of the Company's presentation is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and has also been posted on our website. All statements at the conference (including Exhibit 99.1), other th…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Building Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AAON AAON | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
TT Trane Technologies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JCI Johnson Controls | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | expensive | low |
CARR Carrier Global | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LII Lennox International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | full | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing production throughput and converting existing backlog into sales.
Enhance production capacity and utilization to support growth and margin improvement.
Continue regular quarterly cash dividend payments to shareholders.
The company has announced a $100 million share buyback program to be executed depending on market conditions.
AAON aims to improve operating income, as evidenced by recent financial performance.
Why it matters: News about the buyback program may show management's faith in the company's value.
Confirms:They announced share buybacks of more than $50 million.
Disproves:No updates or reductions in the buyback program.
Why it matters: Sales growth below expectations may mean demand is weak. This can affect future plans.
Confirms:Q2 sales growth below 40% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 sales growth meets or exceeds 40% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes to the dividend can show financial health. They also show management's confidence in future earnings.
Confirms one read:The company increases the dividend payout, suggesting strong cash flow.
Confirms the other:The company cuts the dividend. This shows financial trouble.
Why it matters: Successful buybacks can support the stock price and show confidence in the company.
Confirms:The company buys back a large number of shares.
Disproves:No shares are bought back. The buyback program is paused or smaller.
Why it matters: A slowdown in backlog growth could signal weakening demand and affect future revenue.
Confirms:Q2 total backlog growth below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 total backlog growth remains above 10% year over year.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. All statements in the teleconference, other than historical financial information, may be deemed to be "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as “expects”, “anticipates”, “intends”, “plans”, “believes”, “seeks”, “estimates”, “should”, “will”, and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify…
Other Events. The Company announced that the Board of Directors has declared its next regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share or $0.40 annually. The next cash dividend will be payable on June 26, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on June 5, 2026. A copy of the Company's press release announcing the quarterly cash dividend is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Other Events The Company today announced that the Board of Directors has authorized the Company to make up to $100.0 million in purchases of shares of the Company’s common stock from time to time in the open market depending on market conditions. The Board must authorize the timing and amount of these purchases and all repurchases will be made in accordance with the rules and regulations of the SEC allowing the Company to repurchase shares from the open market. Repurchased shares will be rest…