Reading AAMI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AAMI free→Reading AAMI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AAMI free→NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $78.54. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $79 AAMI trades at 21× p/e — 1.4× the 15× p/e peer median, and above its own 13× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $57 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $60–$80. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 38% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.02x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.98 → $1.00 (+1.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 0.6% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$165.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$338.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,820.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'expensive'.
As of June 12, 2026, the valuation dimension changed and became expensive. The macro backdrop also shifted, indicating a headwind. Risk fell, suggesting a decrease in overall risk. The management dimension remained stable, indicating no change in management quality.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop below the median would signal a slowdown in the financial sector's growth.
Confirms:AAMI's revenue growth falls below 9% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above 9% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AAMI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, on June 11, 2026, the Company held the Annual Meeting. As of April 20, 2026, the record date for the Annual Meeting, the Company had 35,628,988 shares of common stock issued and outstanding and entitled to vote at the Annual Meeting. Of these shares, 32,712,971 were present or represented by proxy at the Annual Meeting. A quorum was present for the transaction of business at the Annual Meeting. At the Annual Meeting, the Company’s stockholders considered an…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$60.00 – $80.00 (median $60.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-08
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Asset Management & Custody Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AAMI Acadian Asset Management Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BLK BlackRock | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BX Blackstone Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BNY BNY Mellon | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | low |
BK BNY Mellon | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue through enhanced management fees and strategic initiatives.
Aim to enhance net income through strategic growth and operational efficiency.
Focus on improving operating income through cost management and revenue growth.
Why it matters: Net income growth is crucial for overall financial health. Meeting targets can boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Net income growth meets or beats what management expected.
Disproves:Net income growth falls short of management's expectations.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would signal a potential slowdown in revenue growth. This could affect investor confidence in the company's growth trajectory.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 13% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains at or above 13% year over year.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well AAMI is managing in a tough market.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) beats expectations by more than 5%.
Confirms the other:EPS falls short of expectations by more than 5%.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income means the company is controlling costs well. This helps long-term profits.
Confirms:Operating income is higher than last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income is lower or the same as last quarter.
Why it matters: Unemployment claims impact how much people spend. They also influence investment choices.
Confirms one read:Claims decrease by more than 10% from the previous week.
Confirms the other:Claims increase by more than 10% from the previous week.
Why it matters: Changes in CPI can affect the economy. This impacts investment plans and company results.
Confirms one read:CPI shows a big rise, which means inflation is increasing.
Confirms the other:CPI shows a big drop, which means deflation is happening.
and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Such information shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as may be expressly set forth in a specific filing. Exhibit No. Description 99.1 First quarter 2026 earnings presentation of Acadian Asset Management Inc. 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document) SIGNATURE Pursuant t…