Snapshot of key Treasury spreads, inversion depth and duration, and near-term curve risk.
Period: Apr 3, 2026 · Source: US Treasury · Frequency: Daily
Primary trend view for the 10Y-2Y and 3m10y curve spreads.
| Driver | Level | 30d change | Risk contribution | Inversion streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y-3M Treasury yield spread (bps) | 64 bps | +25 bps | -64 bps | No |
| 10Y-2Y Treasury yield spread (bps) | 51 bps | -9 bps | -51 bps | No |
| U.S. 2-year Treasury yield (%) | 3.84% | +0.36 ppts | 0 bps | No |
| U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (%) | 4.35% | +0.27 ppts | 0 bps | No |
Consensus path for the 10Y-2Y spread and model quality signals.
| Indicator | Why it matters | If improving | If weakening |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y-2Y spread | This is a widely followed signal of whether the curve is normal, flat, or inverted. In 2026-04-03 it is positive at 0.51 percentage points, which is less recessionary than inversion. | Stays positive or widens modestly for growth-driven reasons. | Narrows toward zero or turns negative again. |
| 3M-10Y spread | This spread compares policy-sensitive short rates with longer-term yields and is often watched for recession risk. It is positive at 0.64 percentage points in 2026-04-03, indicating a normal curve by this measure as well. | Remains positive and stable, signaling less near-term policy-driven stress. | Falls back toward flat or inversion, which would revive recession concerns. |
| Curve status | The current classification is normal with High confidence, which summarizes the broad shape of the Treasury curve. A stable normal reading is generally easier for credit intermediation than inversion. | Continues to register as normal across upcoming periods. | Shifts to flat or inverted status. |
| Days inverted for 10Y-2Y and 3M-10Y | Both inversion counts are 0 days, so there is no ongoing inversion streak to reinforce recession warnings. Persistence matters because longer inversion runs usually carry more signal than brief moves. | Stays at 0 days or remains without a new inversion streak. | Begins accumulating inversion days again. |
