Snapshot of key Treasury spreads, inversion depth and duration, and near-term curve risk.
Period: Jun 2, 2026 · Source: US Treasury · Frequency: Daily
Primary trend view for the 10Y-2Y and 3m10y curve spreads.
| Driver | Level | 30d change | Risk contribution | Inversion streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y-3M Treasury yield spread (bps) | 69 bps | +14 bps | -69 bps | No |
| 10Y-2Y Treasury yield spread (bps) | 41 bps | -13 bps | -41 bps | No |
| U.S. 2-year Treasury yield (%) | 4.05% | +0.33 ppts | 0 bps | No |
| U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (%) | 4.46% | +0.20 ppts | 0 bps | No |
Consensus path for the 10Y-2Y spread and model quality signals.
| Indicator | Why it matters | If improving | If weakening |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y-2Y spread | This is the gap between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury rate. A positive gap usually points to a more normal growth outlook. | The gap stays above zero and gradually widens from 0.41 percentage points. | The gap shrinks toward zero or turns inverted, meaning short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, which is unusual. |
| 3M-10Y spread | This compares very short-term Treasury rates with 10-year rates. It is a widely watched recession signal. | The gap stays clearly above zero and holds near or above 0.69 percentage points. | The gap falls toward zero or turns inverted, meaning short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, which is unusual. |
| Curve status | The current reading is normal, which means longer-term Treasury rates are above shorter-term rates. That is the usual shape. | The curve stays normal across the main measures in the next few readings. | The curve flips back to inverted, which would revive a common warning sign about slower growth. |
| Days inverted | Right now, both main gaps have been inverted for 0 days. A rising count would show that unusual upside-down readings are lasting, not just appearing briefly. | The count stays at 0 days or near it. | The count starts rising and stays elevated for many days. |
