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QuarterlyIQ

Fed / Policy Rates

Current target range, effective Fed funds rate, and market-implied path for upcoming FOMC meetings.

Headline
3.64%
Target range: 3.50–3.75%
Last change: -25 bps on 2025-12-11
Release metadata
Frequency: daily
Source: FRED
Last release: 2026-01-28
Next meeting: 2026-03-18

What's happening right now

  • The current policy rate is close to the model's expected midpoint.

Why it matters

  • When the policy rate is near its expected path, rate uncertainty tends to be lower.

What this likely means over the next 3 months

  • More likely: the Fed stays near current levels in the near term, adjusting only as data shift.

How this affects everyday decisions

Investing
What may become easier
  • No items.
What may become harder
  • No items.
Where to be cautious
  • Be cautious adding leverage if rate expectations are shifting higher.
What to watch next
  • Next FOMC meeting
  • Inflation data
  • Labor market data
Job security & wages
What may become easier
  • No items.
What may become harder
  • No items.
Where to be cautious
  • Be cautious about job or wage negotiations if policy is tightening and growth is slowing.
What to watch next
  • Payroll growth
  • Jobless claims
  • Wage growth
Savings & cash
What may become easier
  • No items.
What may become harder
  • No items.
Where to be cautious
  • Be cautious stretching cash buffers if borrowing costs stay high.
What to watch next
  • Short-term rates
  • Credit conditions
  • Delinquency trends
Real estate & housing
What may become easier
  • No items.
What may become harder
  • No items.
Where to be cautious
  • Be cautious locking in large housing payments if rates could stay higher for longer.
What to watch next
  • Mortgage rates
  • Housing affordability
  • Delinquency rates
Debt
What may become easier
  • No items.
What may become harder
  • No items.
Where to be cautious
  • Be cautious adding new variable-rate or unsecured debt in a higher-for-longer environment.
What to watch next
  • Credit card APRs
  • Loan delinquencies
  • Bank lending standards

What to watch next (early signals)

Next FOMC meeting
Sets the near-term policy rate path.
Good: Clear guidance / stable pathRisk: Surprise moves
Inflation trend
Key driver of policy stance.
Good: CoolingRisk: Re-accelerating
Labor market data
Signals how much tightening the economy can absorb.
Good: Gradual coolingRisk: Sharp weakening