Inflation (CPI) – US

Full-history view of US consumer price inflation, headline vs core, and macro risk context.

Period: Headline CPI, SA (YoY) · Source: BLS – CPI-U · Frequency: monthly

Last release: 2026-01-13

Risk: MODERATE

Headline

3.0% YoY headline CPI

Core CPI YoY: 0.0%

Headline CPI MoM (SA): 0.3%

Core CPI 3m annualized: 3.0%

December CPI Shows Slight Increase

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, reflecting a slight uptick in inflation.

Headline CPI increased to 2.71% yoy from 2.68% in November.
Core CPI also edged up to 2.66% yoy from 2.69% previously.
Goods and services sectors contributed significantly to the overall inflation.

Downside risks include potential supply chain disruptions or unexpected increases in energy prices, which could further elevate inflationary pressures.

Release metadata

Frequency: monthly

Source: BLS – CPI-U

What’s happening right now

Inflation momentum is picking up versus recent months.
Inflation is running above the Fed's 2% target.

Why it matters

When inflation accelerates, real purchasing power can erode faster unless wages keep up.
Above-target inflation keeps pressure on the Fed to stay cautious or tight.

What this likely means over the next 3 months

More likely: inflation stays sticky near-term, keeping rate-cut expectations in check.
Less likely: a quick return to target without a slowdown in demand.

How this affects everyday decisions

Investing

What may become easier

No items.

What may become harder

High inflation can make it harder for risk assets if rate expectations move higher.

Where to be cautious

Be cautious stretching for yield if inflation surprises higher.

What to watch next

Core inflation trend
Market-based inflation expectations
Fed communication

Job security & wages

What may become easier

No items.

What may become harder

Faster price increases can squeeze real wage gains.

Where to be cautious

Be cautious if wage growth slows while prices stay firm.

What to watch next

Average hourly earnings
Job openings and quits
Consumer confidence

Savings & cash

What may become easier

No items.

What may become harder

High inflation can make it harder to keep savings ahead of rising costs.

Where to be cautious

Be cautious drawing down savings too quickly if prices stay elevated.

What to watch next

Inflation trend
Short-term rates on savings
Household balance sheets

Real estate & housing

What may become easier

No items.

What may become harder

Sticky inflation can keep mortgage rates elevated for longer.

Where to be cautious

Be cautious stretching on payments if both prices and rates stay high.

What to watch next

Shelter inflation
Mortgage rates
Rental vacancy rates

Debt

What may become easier

No items.

What may become harder

High inflation and higher-for-longer rates can make variable-rate debt harder to carry.

Where to be cautious

Be cautious adding new debt if budgets are already tight.

What to watch next

Credit card APRs
Delinquency rates
Household debt service ratios

What to watch next (early signals)

Core CPI

Shows underlying inflation trend excluding food and energy.

Good: CoolingRisk: Re-accelerating

Shelter inflation

A key driver of core services inflation.

Good: CoolingRisk: Rising

Market-based inflation expectations

Signals how investors see inflation over the medium term.

Good: Anchored / fallingRisk: Rising

Wage growth

Helps determine whether inflation pressures are demand-driven.

Good: Balanced with inflationRisk: Lagging inflation

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How this affects everyday decisions

Investing

What may become easier

No items.

What may become harder

High inflation can make it harder for risk assets if rate expectations move higher.

Where to be cautious

Be cautious stretching for yield if inflation surprises higher.

What to watch next

Core inflation trend
Market-based inflation expectations
Fed communication

Job security & wages

What may become easier

No items.

What may become harder

Faster price increases can squeeze real wage gains.

Where to be cautious

Be cautious if wage growth slows while prices stay firm.

What to watch next

Average hourly earnings
Job openings and quits
Consumer confidence

Savings & cash

What may become easier

No items.

What may become harder

High inflation can make it harder to keep savings ahead of rising costs.

Where to be cautious

Be cautious drawing down savings too quickly if prices stay elevated.

What to watch next

Inflation trend
Short-term rates on savings
Household balance sheets

Real estate & housing

What may become easier

No items.

What may become harder

Sticky inflation can keep mortgage rates elevated for longer.

Where to be cautious

Be cautious stretching on payments if both prices and rates stay high.

What to watch next

Shelter inflation
Mortgage rates
Rental vacancy rates

Debt

What may become easier

No items.

What may become harder

High inflation and higher-for-longer rates can make variable-rate debt harder to carry.

Where to be cautious

Be cautious adding new debt if budgets are already tight.

What to watch next

Credit card APRs
Delinquency rates
Household debt service ratios

What to watch next (early signals)

Core CPI

Shows underlying inflation trend excluding food and energy.

Good: CoolingRisk: Re-accelerating

Shelter inflation

A key driver of core services inflation.

Good: CoolingRisk: Rising

Market-based inflation expectations

Signals how investors see inflation over the medium term.

Good: Anchored / fallingRisk: Rising

Wage growth

Helps determine whether inflation pressures are demand-driven.

Good: Balanced with inflationRisk: Lagging inflation